Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Rapid Fire Updates: November 26, 2014




STORM OVERVIEW
A major nor'easter system is currently impacting the northeast, and will continue to make it's effects felt for the next day or so. Major impacts include heavy snow, sleet, rain, and gusty winds. Localized accumulations in the jackpot zones marked in last night's map may exceed ten to twelve inches...

Update #1 10:00am
As more steady precip has moved in, many areas in PA, NY, and NJ have mixed with or changed over to snow. This process is possible due to dynamic cooling, as the downward motion of the precipitation brings down cold air from the upper levels. Many areas currently near the rain-snow line will continue to see wintry precip until a warm nose in the mid levels begins to warm the column.
data/rtma/14/rtma_midatl_000_2m_temp.gif
2 meter temps as of 14z (9am). Freezing line is indicated by the darker purple.


Banding is beginning to form, but has yet to come together completely. When it does, areas under the bands may see snow rates of upwards of two inches per hour, with visibility falling to dangerously low levels. Traveling during this snowstorm is not recommended!
RADAR ANALYSIS #1
Area in RED is expected to see the highest accumulations of the next one to three hours



More updates will be posted in the coming hours. If you have photos of this storm, upload them to a file host and post the link in the comments! I'd love to post them!

Daniel




Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Winter WX Discussion #1: November 25, 2014

MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVELERS FROM DC TO BOSTON...IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER TWELVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...

Summary
A major nor'easter will impact the northeastern states from late Tuesday night into early Thursday morning, bringing snow, sleet, rain, and winds to over a dozen states up and down the eastern seaboard. The heaviest snow will occur on an axis extending from northeastern PA and northwestern NJ to portions of MA and CT.




City-By-City Snowfall Forecast
  1. Washington, DC: <1"
  2. Lancaster, PA: 5-10"
  3. Philadelphia, PA: 2-5"
  4. Newark, NJ: 1-3"
  5. New York City, NY: 1-3", 2-4 just to the N&W
  6. White Plains, NY: 4-8"
  7. Poughkeepsie, NY: 8-12"
  8. Albany, NY: 6-10"
  9. Danbury, CT: 2-5"
  10. Boston, MA: 1-2"


Travel Impacts Forecast
Interstate, Travel Conditions (Good, Fair, Bad, Very Bad)

  • I95, Bad
  • I84, Very Bad
  • I81, Very Bad
  • I80, Very Bad
  • I287, Very Bad


Future Updates
Rapid Fire updates may be posted throughout the day tomorrow. This will be the last WWXD on this system.

Thanks for reading, and stay safe!
Daniel


Sunday, November 23, 2014

Quickshot Update: Storm on the Horizon?

A full article will be posted later today, but here is a quick summary. Several models including the ECMWF, the GFS, and the ARW are now showing some sort of significant east coast impacts from a storm potential on Wednesday. Pre-Thanksgiving travelers will need to keep a wary eye on the weather anywhere from Washington DC to Albany to Boston.

At this point, possible threats include heavy snow, drenching rain, gusty winds, and major travel delays. More information will be posted in this afternoon's article.

Thanks for reading!
Daniel


Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Introduction to Nor'easter Warn

Hello readers!

My forecasts will concentrate in a small area highlighted below. As of right now, I plan to begin day-by-day forecasts in September, but if people want, I may start earlier. I also plan to do a 2 week long range outlook once per week, and, when the time is right, a forecast-area-wide snow day forecast.

N'EW Forecast Area, as of NOV 2014
New York
Dutchess
Ulster
Greene
Columbia

Connecticut
Litchfield

Other counties may be added in the future.

Anyway, although this blog is winter-based, if a hurricane comes this way, I'll be on it. Expect further blog expansions in the future.

-Svrwxwarn, N'EW